The August auto market saw plugin EVs at 22.4% share in France, down from 25.7% year on year. Volumes of both BEVs and PHEVs were down by over 33% YoY, declining more than the overall market drop. Overall auto volume was just 85,977 units, down 24.3% YoY, the weakest August since 2014, and far below 2016–2019 seasonal norms (~121,300). The Tesla Model Y was France’s best selling BEV in August.
August saw combined EVs at 22.4% share in France, with full battery electrics (BEVs) at 15.2%, and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 7.2%. These compare with respective YoY figures of 25.7% combined, 17.3% BEV, and 8.4% PHEV.
We’ve frequently raked over the dimming coals of France’s EV progress in our market reports from the past few months. In short, the mid-March incentive cut for non-European BEVs, the current hangover following the temporary social-leasing programme at the start of the year, and July’s start of profit-protectionist anti-China tariffs by the EU, are all having a severely negative effect on progress.
This shows through in the market data. Although January to April (cumulative) saw BEV volume up by some 27.7% YoY, the May to August figure is down by 9.3% YoY. Thanks to the early boost, the YTD volume total is still just about in the positive YoY by 8.1%, or some 14,000 units. PHEV volume is, however, down by around 11% YoY.
Fortunately the slack is at least being taken up by traditional (plugless) hybrids (HEVs), rather than combustion-only vehicles. Year to date, HEV volumes (including mild hybrids) are up by some 36% YoY, to a cumulative total of 359,532 units, and 31.9% market share.
Traditional combustion-only powertrain sales stand at 446,992 units YTD, down from 545,705 at this point last year. Cumulative market share is 39.6%, down decently from 48.2% YoY.
Diesel-only volumes continue to shrink, with 87,728 YTD cumulative sales, down from 116,607 YoY. Diesel market share (red segment below) so far in 2024 has fallen to 7.8%, from 10.3% YoY.
That reduction trend, if it holds, tracks towards diesels being under 2.5% share in four years time, and around 1% share in 7 years time. In the ideal world this would happen much faster — if affordable BEVs are allowed to be sold in Europe. Don’t count on it though; the European ruling classes may prefer to maintain record profits for legacy automakers, and salary bonuses for the auto-managerial 1%, coming from squeezing ever more sales juice out of past ICE investments.
Best selling BEV models
August saw the Tesla Model Y jump strongly back into the sales lead, after a long absence, with 2,096 units sold.
The usual favourite, the Peugeot e-208, was relegated to second place with 919 units. The Renault Scenic came in third, its best ever position, with 668 units.
Given that only ~87,000 total autos were sold in August, the Tesla Model Y’s 2,096 units (over 2.4% of the auto market) almost certainly put it inside the top 3 overall best selling autos, a great result. Typically, this kind of Tesla performance is only seen in the final month of a quarter — let’s see what September brings.
The Renault Scenic did well to climb to its record 3rd position, from 4th last month, and 10th in June. It seems to have now displaced its older sibling, the Megane, which is now back in 6th. Let’s see if this is a permanent arrangement.
Given the slow month overall, pretty much every other BEV model saw sales lower than recent averages. The Skoda Enyaq outperformed in relative terms, maintaining recent average volumes and thus coming in 4th, up from 18th in July.
The new Ford Explorer BEV is now on sale in France, having debuted in neighbouring Germany in July. It scored a healthy 293 French sales in August. Let’s see if these units are fulfilling a long standing backlog of orders from Ford dealers and loyalists, or whether this volume can be sustained, and even perhaps grow further.
Recall that the Ford Explorer is the brand’s take on the Volkswagen ID.4, sharing the same MEB-platform underpinnings. For more details, see the July Germany report.
There were reportedly 20-something Renault 5 BEV dealer deliveries in August, these are likely early pre-production units, meant for dealers to learn the model, and perhaps allow some test-drives. We can’t expect large customer deliveries until the end of the year, or early 2025.
Let’s check the 3-month results:
July’s chart had seen the Renault Megane take the top spot for the first time, but the Megane has now fallen to the Tesla Model Y, albeit by a close margin. We can expect the Megane to stay in the top 3 for a while longer, however, in the long run it looks set to be less popular than its more practical sibling, the newer Renault Scenic.
The Citroen e-C3 is still delayed, with no further news since last month’s announcement of “software issues”. Again, since the 2024 EU regulations don’t require emissions improvements over 2023, we can’t expect legacy manufacturers (who want to squeeze out more ICE profits) to rush to get affordable BEVs to market — until they are forced to.
In Europe, the next practical emissions tightening only arrives in 2025, so the likes of Renault and Citroen will delay significant delivery volumes of their more affordable BEVs until then.
Outlook
As discussed above, BEVs are now reducing in YoY volume, as is the overall auto market. The French economy as a whole saw GDP growth slow to just 1% in Q2, from 1.5% in Q1. This is nevertheless still slightly better than the Euro area average, which is currently creeping along at 0.6% growth (Q2 2024).
France’s inflation rate reduced to 1.9% in July (latest), and interest rates remain at 4.25%. Manufacturing PMI stayed weak in August at 43.9 points, from 44 points in July.
Again, since the EU regulations are not setting tougher emissions targets for 2024, (and legacy auto wants to continue to profit from their past), we can’t expect BEV (or broader plugin) growth for the rest of the year. 2025 will start to see modest improvements, however.
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