LFP monthly production surpassed NCM in China

LFP battery cell series from EVE
LFP battery cell series from EVE

In China, the monthly production of battery cells with the cobalt-free chemistry LFP (LiFePO4) finally surpassed NCM. This is big news!

LFP now represents 52 % of all battery cell production in China, but its market share is expected to grow even more in the coming months. In most electric cars NCM will be relegated to more expensive trim levels, while LFP will become the standard battery cell chemistry.

 

While Chinese automakers have been extremely fast to adopt LFP as the standard battery cell chemistry, other automakers will follow this strategy.

Tesla, Volkswagen and Renault already stated that LFP will become the chemistry that allows to mass produce electric cars that compete with ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) cars in price and availability.

 

 

However, the high demand for LFP battery cells might bring a temporary price increase, since production isn’t enough to supply all automakers that want them. To prevent this, Tesla is already looking for new LFP battery cell suppliers and Reuters reports that EVE might be the next one to sign a deal. Currently, only CATL supplies LFP battery cells to Tesla.

Anyway, LNMO is another cobalt-free chemistry that is also expected to soon increase its market share. This is a high-voltage alternative to LFP that could become mainstream in few years.

SVOLT is an established battery cell maker that will go all in with LNMO very soon, but CATL also has big plans for this cobalt-free chemistry.

 

 

In terms of costs at the battery pack level with the CTP (cell-to-pack) technology, this is what I currently estimate.

 

  • NCM/NCMA: 90 euros per kWh
  • LNMO: 80 euros per kWh
  • LFP: 70 euros per kWh

 

Nonetheless, don’t expect to get real figures from automakers. They still want us – and especially policy makers – to think that electric cars are extremely expensive to make, so we don’t pressure them to abandon their investments already made in ICE technology.

 

 

More info:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/exclusive-tesla-talks-with-chinas-eve-low-cost-battery-supply-deal-sources-2021-05-14/

https://en.evebattery.com/product/40.html

Pedro Lima

My interest in electric transportation is mostly political. I’m tired of coups and wars for oil. My expectation is that the adoption of electric transportation will be a factor for peace and democracy all over the world.

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Maximilian Holland
30 days ago

Great to see LFP now doing so well. This should mean more R&D and continuing cost and performance improvements over the coming years.
Why is LFP important for the transport revolution? It’s minerals are the most abundant and lowest cost.
Thank you Pedro.

Famlin
29 days ago

Great news. So LFP leads in China while NCx leads outside China. Competition is getting aggressive between the 2.
If the low cost EVs and the lower range EVs can run on LFP, why not automaker sell more of these.
3 Wuling MiniEV with 13 KWh (170 km NEDC range) will travel lot more distance than 1 Leapmotor T03 with 41 KWh (403 km NEDC range) since most people drive less than 100 km/day.
LNMO, though a cobalt free battery is still a nickel battery and may go in its own club. I hope LNMO also becomes a big player on its own or at least competes with NCx.

Whether its LFP or NCx, I am ok as long as BEVs increase sales while ICE decreases.

Famlin
29 days ago

: The prices mentioned could be true in china in newer larger plants, but the overall price is still higher. At the end of last year it was $137 / KWh at the end of last year with the BEV battery prices at $126 / KWh. But what is confusing is the $126 / KWh only for pure BEVs or for all XEVs which includes plugin and full hybrids as well.
I am expecting the pack level price of all lithium batteries (automotive + non-automotive) to fall to $100 / KWh at the pack level by 2022-12. So from 2023-01, no more excuses by automakers.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/